Property Market
13 Jan 2025
2025 Predictions for the UK property market
As we step into 2025, the UK property market faces a pi…
Property Market
- Listings (New properties coming on to the market) – 29k UK listings this week (week 46). YTD 2024, listings are 8% higher compared to 2023 YTD.
- % of Resi Sales Stock being reduced (Monthly): 13% of Resi sales stock was reduced in the last month. 14% last month and long term 5 year average 10.6%.
- Total Gross Sales – 24.2k UK homes sold stc this week (Week 46), slightly more than last week. 19.2% higher than the same standalone week (week 46) in 2023. Also, 8.5% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels & 14.9% higher than 2023 YTD levels.
- Sale Thru rate (Monthly):UK Estate Agents sold 16.11% of their Resi sales stock in Oct ’24. Sept ‘ 24 was 14.79%. 2024 average is 15.86% & the 7 year long term average is 17.9% per month – yet don’t forget that was only in mid/late 20%’s in the crazy years of 20/21/22).
- Sale fall-throughs– For the week 46, Sale Fall Thrus (as a % of Gross sales Agreed) dropped significantly to 25% (down from 28.8% last week). The 7 year Long Term weekly Average is 24.2% and it was 40%+ in the two months following the Truss Budget in the Autumn of 2022. Agents lost 5.8% of their sales pipeline in Oct’24 (up from 5.6% in Sept ‘ 24).
- Net Sales– 18.1k this week (17k last week). 18.2% higher than the same week 46 in 2023, 76% higher than the same week 46 in 2022 & still 17.3% higher YTD in 2024 compared to YTD 2023.
- % of Homes exchanging vs homes unsold– Of the 1,358,587 UK homes that left UK Estate Agents books since the 1st Jan 2024, 728,138 of them (53.6%) exchanged & completed contracts (meaning the homeowner moved and the estate agent got paid). The remaining 630,449 (46.4%) were withdrawn off the market, unsold. In essence you a flip of the coin chance of actually selling, homeowners moving and the estate agent getting paid.
- UK House Prices– As explained in the show, the £/sqft figure foretells and predicts the Land Registry 5 months in advance with an accuracy rating of 92%. Final October figures saw a slight jump in this important metric to £346/sq.ft. For comparison – Sept’s £339/sq.ft, August’s £338/sq.ft, and July at £341/sq.ft. This means house prices are slightly growing.
- Resi Sales Stock on the Market (Monthly Stat) : 725k at end of October (up from 724k at end of Sept). For comparison, Oct ’23 – 664k, Oct ’22 – 523k, Oct ’21 – 425k, Oct ’20 – 681k, Oct ’19 – 652k
- Resi Sales Sold STC Pipeline(Units) (Monthly Stat): 505k at end of October. For comparison, Oct ’23 – 401k, Oct ’22 – 483k, Oct ’21 – 528k, Oct ’20 – 548k, Oct ’19 – 372k
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